Juan Reyes

PhD Candidate in Economics

The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty


Working Paper


Juan Rufino M. Reyes
ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02, King's College London, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, 2026 Feb

Cite

Cite

APA   Click to copy
Reyes, J. R. M. (2026). The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty. ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Reyes, Juan Rufino M. The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty. ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, February 2026.


MLA   Click to copy
Reyes, Juan Rufino M. “The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty.” ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Feb. 2026.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@techreport{juan2026a,
  title = {The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty},
  year = {2026},
  month = feb,
  institution = {Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence},
  journal = {ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02},
  school = {King's College London},
  author = {Reyes, Juan Rufino M.},
  month_numeric = {2}
}

[Picture]
AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index, M1:2016-M4:2025 (3 Month Moving Avg.)
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty shocks related to artificial intelligence (AI). I construct a novel text-based AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index from newspaper coverage that displays sharp increases around notable AI developments. The index also demonstrates limited correlation with established measures of economic uncertainty. Using SVAR-IV with an instrument that orthogonalises first- and second-moment coverage of AI, I find that positive AI uncertainty shocks generate significant contractionary effects on equity prices, hours worked, and wages, with smaller and less persistent effects on employment and output. Industry-level estimates, in turn, highlight heterogeneous adjustments along both the labour quantity and price margins. These findings indicate that AI uncertainty is a distinct source of economic fluctuations, with a response pattern that differs from that of conventional uncertainty shocks.
Presented at the following conferences and seminars:
  • 2025 King's Business School (KBS) Doctoral Symposium
  • 2025 Warwick Business School (WBS) PhD Workshop on Fintech
  • 2025 ESCoE Researcher Workshop
  • ESCOE Economic Measurement Webinar
  • 4th UK Digital Economics Workshop
  • 2025 UNSW-ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement
  • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (Central Bank of the Philippines) - Office of Systemic Risk Management Special Lecture